The Global COVID Pandemic has temporarily altered the lives of the World’s population, but at a time when its estimated growth of over 1% annually will add 2.8 billion more people by 2050 (i.e. 30+%).​ This dramatic growth will expect and require more and more sustainable energy. The underlying facts show​ that based on current technology, this simply can not be done without the use of hydrocarbons, and​ increasingly gas, which remains one of the most effective and efficient fuels, even in this age of new ‘energy​ transition’. The all too emotional, but ill informed faculties of the World need to understand now that​ without appropriate upstream investment, the upstream industry’s ability to meet this demand within the​ next 4 years is in question (even with the temporary high inventories caused by Covid) and by which time it​ will simply been too late for any E&P efforts (which traditionally can take between 2‐10 years to deliver from​ exploration to production) to fill the gap.​

The already limited E&P expertise being lost by retirement, with very few technically experienced (G&G and​ Engineering) people available to find new resources (due to the legacy of the extended 1984 – 2003​ industry crash) leaves the World in a energy dilemma unless a completely new source of energy is found to​ replace oil and gas very quickly indeed (which seems unlikely). The World therefore needs new E&P now, so​ potentially within 12 – 24 months if the new trusted sources (including Rystad )predicting supply shortfalls​ of 5 MMbbls / day by 2025 are correct, commodity prices do not rise very much more sharply than is​ currently predicted.​

The ‘early bird catches the worm’ is a very old saying from the late 1600’s and is perhaps very relevant for​ investors looking for a prime opportunity which equally understand the underlying facts about energy cycles​ and the facts that underpin the next 2‐5+ years rather than a quick buck over the next few weeks and​ months. Few have ever consistently predicted the big commodity price swings so what has changed now?​ The facts seem to suggest a swing back the other way, particularly as the resource play boom predicted by​ many to be the savour of global supply, appears to have hit the buffers ladened with unsupportable debt​ even before Covid, will not help.​

Filling the future hole in supplies, whilst satisfying the demands of the Worlds new Green Army that remains​ dependent on hydrocarbon energy, unless they are willing to accept significant change (i.e. like being locked​ down for the next 30 years as we have these last 12 weeks) and paying much higher prices for sustainable​ energy, is something that collectively needs to be considered and actioned by everyone in the World,​ including the users, producers and governments. Only time will tell but the evidence seems clear”